Technical Analysis of Financial Markets

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Micron Technology, Inc (MU)


Micron engages in the manufacture and marketing of semiconductor devices worldwide. From NAND flash memory for consumer electronics, products include memory for medical devices and image/temperature sensory components for industrial, commercial and military application. Potentially bottomed out, stock price seems to be breaking out of a 7-month downtrend which saw a decline of 63%. Micron announces second quarter 2007 earnings on 4th April.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM)


Wireless mobile communications solution developer and BlackBerry handset manufacturer, Research In Motion, is possibly forming a bearish Diamond top formation. Confirmation of the pattern occurs on breakout of volume. Price target towards gap support just under $100, some 35% away from current levels.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)


Believing its stock price remains undervalued in spite of doubling in price over the past two years, Hewlett-Packard announced on Friday it is to spend $8bn on a share buy-back programme; http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070316/1433624.html. Price action could be forming a very speculative bearish Head & Shoulders pattern. Confirmation of the pattern occurs on break of the $38 neckline with a price target of $34. Stop-loss close above $40.50 invalidating the formation.

ACE Ltd. (ACE)


Global property and casualty insurance and reinsurance organization, ACE, is currently retracing towards the $56 level which has served as a pivot defining bull vs. bear price action. A bearish trading strategy would entail entering a short position towards $56 as near as possible with price target of $51; stop-loss close above $56.

Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY)


Bed Bath & Beyond operates a national chain of home furnishing stores across the US. Price action has formed a broadening pattern consisting of a horizontal base with higher highs following an ascending trend line; such a formation usually predicts a short-term bearish reversal. A price target can be derived by computing the difference between the highest high and horizontal base and then projected downwards; i.e. $43-$38=$5; $38-$5=$33. Stop-loss close above $40.50.

Sunday, March 04, 2007

10% Correction ?

In a period of just 7 months from 18 July 2006 to 20 February 2007, the Dow staged a powerful rally achieving a gain of 20% in that period; so a correction of some sort was overdue and expected. A drop of 10% is considered a full-fledged correction, which is an interruption of a general healthy bull market trend. If a 10% correction is on the cards, then the Dow is currently half-way through. A further drop of around 600 points from current levels towards 11500 will mark a 10% correction for Dow coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 7-month rally.

Across the Atlantic, the situation seems more threatening. A 10% correction for the FTSE 100 will take the UK’s blue-chip index of the 100 largest companies towards 5800 which would clearly break the 4-year bull market uptrend support. A broken trendline of this nature would indicate a bearish trend-reversal where the uptrend “support becomes resistance”.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Applera Corp-Applied Biosystems Group. (ABI)

Applera engages in the development of scientific & technical instruments for use by the biotechnology industry to research & develop pharmaceuticals. Having declined 21% over a 4-month period, stock price seems to have currently found support at the $32-level which served as support 6-months prior. Recent good buy-volume, and formation of a bullish-reversal Hammer candlestick, combined with oversold conditions may suggest a reversal in price action. Stop-loss close below $32.

Friday, February 09, 2007

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)


South African gold miner Gold Fields is currently trading at around $16 which has served as support for 14 months. Recent good buy-volume may suggest price action is beginning to reverse a 9-month downtrend which saw stock price decline some 65%. Stop-loss close below $16.

QLogic Corp. (QLGC)

Manufacturer of semiconductor & integrated circuits technology and developer of storage network components, QLogic, has declined 27% in under 3 months and has currently found support at the $18-level. Oversold conditions suggest price action may be poised for a rebound. Initial price target towards 38.2% Fibonacci extension at around $20. Stop-loss close below $18.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

AES Corp. (AES)

Electric power generator and distributer AES has recently been sold-off declining 20% in a month. Price action is currently trading around at $20 which has served as support for 5 months. Enter long position with a stop-loss close below $20.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Oil

Unseasonally mild weather has sent oil prices plunging some 22% to a 19-month low in a period of just a month. As short sellers cover with the possibility of OPEC convening this week to discuss production cuts, the following selection of oil and oil-related services stocks may be poised for a technical recovery over the quarter:

Halliburton Co. (HAL):

Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB):

BJ Services Co. (BJS):

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK):


Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX):

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Gateway Inc. (GTW) - Head & Shoulders Bottom


Computer manufacturer Gateway has formed a bullish Head & Shoulders bottom pattern. Current price action may find support at the $2.1 neckline. 3Q 2006 results announced Nov 2nd 2006 reported profits surpassing expectations which saw the stock price surge 8%; price action has remained in an uptrend since. 4Q 2006 results are due this season; stop-loss $1.90.

Friday, January 12, 2007

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)


Financial services firm Wells Fargo rallied 33% in a 14-month period. Price action is however starting to weaken and is currently testing the trendline support of the uptrend. Sell on close below the trendline for an initial price target towards $34. Stop-loss $36.

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) - Head & Shoulders Bottom


After declining some 93% over the past 12 months, Yahoo! has consolidated into a bullish Head & Shoulders bottom formation. A strong 3.5% breakout from the neckline has confirmed the pattern which may see a pullback towards the neckline support before price action resumes higher. Initial price target at $31. Stop-loss: close below neckline.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP)


Oil/gas drilling and exploration company Helmerich & Payne has currently found support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of a 3-month uptrend which saw price action rally 30%. With oversold stochastics crossing over and RSI turning bullish; a price target around $26.50 towards the underside of the broken trendline should see a quick ~6% gain -where a short position can be initiated. Stop-loss: close below $24.44

Anaren Microwave, Inc. (ANEN)


Manufacturer of wireless communication components Anaren has broken an 18-month trendline which saw stock price rally some 170% in that period. The broken trendline may signal a trend-reversal. However, price action held support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently testing the underside of the trendline. Stop-loss for a long position: close below $17.15; stop-loss for a short position: close above $18.50.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Diodes Inc. (DIOD)

Integrated circuits and semiconductor manufacturer Diodes is beginning to look weak after a breakdown of the 2-year uptrend support. Initial price target for a short-sell position is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

3Com Corp. (COMS)

3Com has broken support of an 18-month uptrend but has found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.01. Immediate resistance at $4.25 beneath the underside of the broken trendline. Stop-loss close below $4. Q2 fiscal year 2007 results scheduled to be released on December 20: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061212/20061212005639.html

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Blockbuster, Inc. (BBI)


BlockBuster seems to have consolidated a 4½ year downtrend into a Double Bottom formation. Price target for a Double Bottom formation can be measured by taking the height of the Double Bottom 'W' pattern and projecting it upwards; - a price target of around $6.75, or a gain of around 27%. The stock has been up some 16% already since CEO John Antioco spent $1 million in a share buy-back a month ago: http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/061128/116473652614.html?.v=1

Monday, December 11, 2006

AT&T, Inc. (T)


After 6-month rally gaining 44%, AT&T seems like it has run into a double-top formation on declining volume; -stochastics are signalling overbought conditions and are poised to cross lower. Enter short-sell for a possible pullback towards initial support at the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements at $33.43 and $32.45. Buy on break and close above $35 with price target towards Fibonacci extension at $37.96.