Technical Analysis of Financial Markets

Saturday, February 23, 2008

iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)


Between August 2007 and January 2008, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index rallied 80% within a 5-month period. Since the sell-off in early Janaury 2008, price action has rebounded but has remained beneath the underside of the broken trendline; forming a triple-top formation with resistance at $85. An entry into a short position with a stop-loss on close above $85 may serve as a low-risk trade.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)


Operater of retail stores in various formats worldwide, Wal-Mart has remained in a trading channel ranging from approx $42 to $51.50 over the last 28-month period. Price action is now approaching the upper band of this trading range providing an entry into a short position based on the assumption of the continued channel; stop-loss close above $51.50. Tuesday 19th; Wal-Mart is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.02 a share.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC)


Founded in 1985, Cablevision Systems operates as a media, entertainment and telecommunications company in the United States. Having declined approx 90% over the last 7 month period, price action has now rallied towards the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level projected from the 7 month downtrend low. This level, at approx $28, has previously served as both support and resistance. With RSI and stochastics signalling overbought conditions, an entry into a short position with a stop-loss on close above $28 may serve as low-risk trade.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Friday, February 01, 2008

FTSE 100, 50% Fibonacci Extension

The 50% Fibonacci extension level projected between the year low and October 2007 highs is currently serving as resistance on the FTSE 100. The monthly graph illustrates that both stochastics and RSI are currently overbought signalling a likely pullback. Long above 6034 otherwise short.



Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Dow Jones, 9-month RSI


The “Credit-Crunch” sell-off saw the Dow decline over 20% from all-time-highs within a 4-month period; technically, trading in recession territory. Since then, price action has rapidly climbed 1000 points from the lows in just 6 trading days closing near the 12,500 mark (Dead cat bounce?: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce). 12,500 has previously served as both support and resistance and may define the bull vs bear case on the Dow; i.e. enter long above 12,500 otherwise remain short. As price action hit successive records between May 2007 and October 2007, RSI diverged and remains in a declining bias signalling a bearish long-term undertone. A possible favourable 50bps rate cut by the Fed on 30th January 2008 may set the scene for a rally on Wall Street; however, upside may be limited towards the underside of the declining RSI trendline.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Fibonacci Retracements & Fans





Both the Dow and FTSE are at present discovering support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels projected from the commencement of the 5-year bull-market.

Monday, January 07, 2008

Wall Street RSI


Since the beginning of the the 2003 bull market, each time RSI(14) traded at approximately 38 during a weekly timeframe, a buy signal was generated on Wall Street. However, the previous two buy signals occured at approximately a reading of 42 which is where price action is currrenly trading.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Friday, December 21, 2007

Friday, December 07, 2007

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Dow Jones 28/11/2007 to 04/12/2007: Head & Shoulders


Over the last 5 trading sessions, the Dow has seemingly charted a bearish Head & Shoulders formation. A break below the Neckline support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level confirms the formation with a price target towards 13,000. With declining oversold stochastics signalling a bullish crossover, price action above the 200-day moving average may invalidate the formation.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Riverbed Technology, Inc. (RVBD)


J. C. Penney Company, Inc (JCP)


After rallying over 500% since 2003 lows, retail services and departmental store J. C. Penney has declined almost 120% and is currently consolidating at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. With RSI oversold and oversold stochastics signalling a seemingly bullish crossover, an entry into a long position with a stop-loss on close below $40 may serve as a low-risk trade. An 8%, or $10.3bn, increase in Thanksgiving/Black Friday sales compared with a year ago has suggested a strong start to the holiday shopping season. Analysts at Credit Suisse have upgraded JCP from an "underperform" to "neutral” rating: http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1652781.html

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)


Over the past 11-month period, Starbucks coffee has declined 60% in stock price. Current price action is consolidating into a seemingly bullish Ascending Triangle formation which indicates accumulation with $28 acting as resistance. As the pattern develops volume contracts; followed by an expansion in volume as breakout occurs. Volume precedes price, and so, trade in the direction of OBV breakout which represents a cumulative total of buy and sell volume. As the northern hemisphere enters the colder autumn/winter months, the consumption of hot coffees may increase; -picture the city commuters with their scarves and coffees…

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)


Driven by gold reaching a 16-month high, Canadian gold miner, Agnico-Eagle, has hit an all-time high of $50.35. For over the last 16-month period, Agnico-Eagle has been trading in an ascending range fluctuating approx $12 between highs and lows. Any profit-taking in commodities may impact Agnico-Eagle; likewise, an anticipated interest rate cut by the Fed on Tue 18th may also impact commodities. Analysts at UBS have downgraded Agnico-Eagle from a "buy" rating to "neutral", however, a target price has been raised from $50 to $53 (see http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1598814.html).

DivX, Inc. (DIVX)

DivX develops multimedia & graphics software and services designed for media applications. DivX principally offers video compression-decompression (codec) software libraries for creation and playback of video software applications. After hitting an all-time high of $31.89 about 9 months ago, stock price has more than halved in value; depreciating around 127%. Current price action has broken above $14 which has served as both support and resistance over the last 3 months; in that period, RSI remained bounded below a reading of 50. The breakout has also coincided with a break above the 50-day moving average. Entrance into a long position with a stop-loss on close below $14 may serve as low-risk trade.