Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)

Patterson-UTI Energy provides onshore contract drilling services to independent oil and natural gas operators in North America. Price action has delcined 95% within a 3-month period in a seemingly a-b-c Elliott retrace after completing a 5-wave impulse move during Jan 2008 to Jul 2008. An entrace into a buy position with a stop on close below $19.09 may serve as long-term low-risk trade.

Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE)

Industrial metals & minerals manufacturer Titanium Metals Corporation produces titanium melted and mill products. Price action has declined 300% within the last 14-month projecting a probable 5-wave Elliott formation. An entrance into a buy position with stop on close below $9.80 may serve as low-risk long term trade.

Trico Marine Services Inc. (TRMA)

Texas headquartered Trico Marine, oil & gas equipment and services provider to offshore drilling rigs has declined 170% within the last 6-month period in a probable 5-wave Elliott formation. With RSI and stochastics gaining strength, an entrance into a buy position with a stop on close below $16.16 may serve as low-risk trade towards an a-b-c price projection at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI)

Having declined 360% within a 33-month period from all-time highs projecting an Elliot a-b-c move; operator of natural and organic foods supermarkets, Whole Foods, is seemingly finding support at $17.50; -a level last seen serving as support 6 years ago. Enter short on a weekly close below $17.50 otherwise remain long.

2008 Elliott Wave Analysis

United States Natural Gas (UNG)

Dow to 10,700 ?

The Dow is approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2003 to 2008 bull market.

Shaw Group, Inc. (SGR)

The Shaw Group provides engineering, design, construction and maintenance services to government and private-sector clients in a wide array of industries, including the energy, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response markets. Having declined over 85% within the last 2-month period, price action is now finding support at the $35 level which served as prior resistance on two accounts during early 2006 and 2007. With RSI beginning to indicate oversold conditions, an entrance into a buy position with stop on close below $35 may serve as a low-risk trade. Otherwise, enter short on close below $35.

Seagate Technology (STX)

Having halved in value within the last 11-month period since Nov 2006, manufacturer of data storage devices, Seagate, is currently re-testing the $14 level; an area last seen as support during the July 15th lows coinciding with YTD market-wide lows. With positive RSI divergence against price action and oversold stochastics; current consolidation may form a Double-Bottom pattern with a price target of $19 approx. Otherwise, a breach of $14 may see price action decline further to subsequent support levels of $12 and $10.

S&P 500 - Head & Shoulders ?

The Fannie & Freddie bailout saw the the S&P rally over 2% towards the underside of the Neckline of a probable Head & Shoulders formation. RSI support since the July 15 uptrend is now serving as resistance. An entrance into a short position with a stop on close above today's high at 1275 may serve as a low-risk trade.

Speculative Projections - BZP, PBR, RIG, FWLT

Boeing Co. (BA) - Elliott Wave

Manufacturer of aerospace & defence systems and jetliners, Dow component Boeing, has completed a 5-wave Elliott impulse formation between April 2003 and October 2007. Current price action may be scheduled to rally towards the underside of the Neckline of a broken Head & Shoulders pattern (coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 5-wave Elliott move), where wave-c of a corrective a-b-c formation may resume.

STMicroelectronics NV (STM) - Double-Bottom

Having halved in value within a 12-month period, semiconductor manufacturer STMicroelectronics is consolidating into a Double-Bottom formation. A recent 5-wave impulse Elliott formation has seen price action find resistance at the second peak of the Double-Bottom formation at $13.50 approx. The 5-wave Elliott formation may complete with a usual a-b-c correction forming a Head & Shoulders pattern before resuming the Double-Bottom formation. A price target can be calculated by appending the distance from the trough lows to the resistance peaks projected beyond the peaks.

J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG)

Having declined 100% within the last 4-month period, US apparel and accessories retailer is seemingly finding support at the $25 level; a level last seen since July-September 2006 during the IPO. An entrance into a buy position with stop on close below $25 may serve as low-risk trade. Cramer Likes J. Crew

QQQQ Bull Flag ?

The Nasdaq 100 Trust ETF is listed on the Nasdaq providing broad exposure to the technology sector by tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Current price action is consolidating into a Bull Flag formation. The Bull Flag is continuation pattern and usually a price objective can be derived by projecting the magnitude of the previous motive wave (i.e. Flagpole) using an a-b-c corrective measured move. Exit buy position on close below the 50-day moving average.

Predicting the Market

Inherently, it is challenging to forecast the direction of the market purely based on Technical Analysis. Even more complex is predicting market timing. Rarely do both attributes of direction and timing develop as anticipated. However, on this occasion, using classical analysis of trendlines, Fibonacci projections and basic Elliot Wave analysis, occasionally the probable scenario transpires; an infrequent example below:

Original post 19th April 2008: http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2008/04/bull-or-bear.html
According to the projected path, price action of the Dow may be completing the fourth wave of a 5-wave Elliot decline beginning 19th May. The fourth wave of rising equity prices may complete by the second week of September. At which point, the final fifth wave of declining prices may ensue towards the year end in time for a possible trend-reversal driven by an Election Rally and the seasonal Santa Claus rally into 2009.

Diminishing Volume; Upside Resistance?

At second attempt, the Dow has again found resistance at the underside of the broken trendline of the rally that began on July 15th. The previous attempt 3 trading sessions ago saw a sell-off of over 200 points. Resistance at this level coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level from the May 19th to July 15th sell-off low. Diminishing volume over the summer months tends to favour upside price action; however the divergence may result in a trend reversal. A short position with stop on a weekly close above 38.2% Fibonacci extension level may serve as a low-risk trade.

Conversely, the S&P500 has broken and closed above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level from the May 19th to July 15th sell-off low. An upside target at approx 1310 at a gain of 0.77% will bring price action toward the underside of the of the broken trendline of the rally that began on July 15th.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Microsoft forming a possible bullish Bull Flag pattern. Enter long with a stop on close below $27; price target approx $30.

Big Lots, Inc (BIG)

Having rallied 190% within an 8-month period since Jan 2008, US retailer Big Lots, is currently consolidating into a bearish Double-Top formation with a negative volume and RSI divergence against price action. An entrance into a short position with stop on close above $35 may serve as a low risk trade for an initial price target towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally.

Dow - Weakening Trend ?

The Dow has rallied 6.6% since the year's low on July 15th. During this rally, a price/volume divergence has developed in terms of rising prices on diminishing volume. The ADX (Average Directional Index) oscillator, a measure of a trend's strength, has been declining against the rising price action signalling a weakening trend. Today's price action saw resistance beneath the underside of the broken trendline of the rally; support has become resistance. An entrance into a short position with stop on close above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level of the previous sell-off (from May 19th to July 15th) at 11,709 may serve as a low-risk trade.